So the 20 teams have been announced for Open Canadian Nationals and now I'll make my second view of the lay of the land after Boston Invite and Solstice results.
Pictured Above: Malcolm Johnston's opinions of my odds (photo courtesy of David Tingle).Furious George - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 2
A rough Solstice with an 0-3 pool play and a loss to Voodoo (Seattle's number 2 team) looks bad for the Furious, but don't be fooled. I heard rumours they were missing some of the keystone players. I'm keeping them where they belong.
Goat - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 4
Goat beats Boston! That's a headline for now. Boston is still trying out some players, but what a semi-final game to watch. Then a truck stop win with some interesting plays. These guys are learning to come from behind and play defense after an O turn. I'm still sticking with 1 in 4.
Invictus - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 110
An okay run at Solstice, but a nothing to indicate that things have changed with this team. Have they introduced the second dimension yet?
Mephisto - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 110
Mephisto goes 2-1 in a tough Boston Invite pool with a one point loss to one of the teams to watch in the region - "New Noise". Mephisto crosses up against Medicine Men, but hit a dead end at Goat ala CUC 2006. 2007 will have Semis still, but no finals yet.
Phoenix - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 200
Phoenix gets a good win over Chuck Wagon which is experience that the rest of the quarter finalists could use. They beat a Providence team and then run into the Noise to end their tournament. Phoenix has had some good battles with experienced competition. This will help them in their Nationals run, but it will be tough to crack the semis.
Blackfish - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 300
With an okay Solstice in a lower pool I'm not going to move these guys too much. Quarters are still in the cross hairs, but when do they play next? How are they going to beat the bigger guns?
Nads - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 300
No results, so this wild card holds ground. Without experience I really should move them down, but my gut says stick.
Red Circus - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 300
The Circus came to town and had a great Boston Invite. A win over Red Tide and GT means that they're doing things right. Ramsay and a few other good handlers have given this team some skills in the back field, and they played a good huck and pin game against GT. A loss to Les Q makes things a little confusing, but I'll gladly bring them in to quarter final contention.
Grand Trunk - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 325
Lots of losses at the Boston Invite means that GT can't keep the same ranking as before. Though many of the teams that they loss to went on to great things, GT still hasn't found what they had last year. There's time, but Toronto's number 2 will need to earn their way into the quarters and beyond.
Q - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 375
At Boston they were missing two of the faces that have held the team together for years. They might be missing in action or gone for good. This will be a big factor on where they'll end up next. They'll be trying to defend their Jazzfest tittle this weekend, so we'll get a better feel for who's on the team and how strong they're going to be.
Magma - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 400
Magma has a good run at Boston. They played some good lower level competition and performed well. I'm giving them an improved rating and Jazzfest should give us a better read on their team. There doesn't appear to be a major turnover with the team and that's a good sign.
Too Bad - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 750
No results to change anything.
Winnipeg General Strike - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 900
No results to change anything.
Mangina - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 1000
No results to change anything.
Firebird - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 1700
Firebird had an up and down Boston Invite. No notable wins or losses, but some good scores. I'm going to move them up since they are getting great experience at each tournament they attend which should prepare them for Nationals. I was hoping to see a Roy vs. Bird game at Jazz, but the Bird isn't in the list.
Sherbrooke Open - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 1750
We'll see these guys at Jazzfest.
Roy - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 2000
No results for Roy, but we'll see them at Jazzfest with an indicator potential game with SWASS.
SWASS - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 5000
Same as Roy.
BID - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 1000000
I don't expect to hear a word from these guys until Nationals. A million it is.
Hootenanni Pussywillows
Bathurst Odds - 1 in 1000001
I've heard rumors that these guys are some okay juniors from a few years back. Maybe they'll take BID or surprise someone else. Maybe monkeys will fly out of our...
PJ
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