Thursday, August 16, 2007

Bathurst Odds - The post analysis

Overall, my picks for Nationals were dead on at the top, I misplaced the Prairie teams, and were pretty close at the bottom other than a few of the pickup teams making big moves. Pretty good for having only a little information.

It's clear that 1 and 2 (Furious and Goat) are 1 and 2 with 3 is nipping at their heels. Invictus, however, needs to commit to improving if they ever want in on the finals. With Nationals moving to Calgary next year and Furious, probably, back to not showing, I would guess they might have a shot to get in the finals.

Rankings 4 through 12 (and an invitation to Red Circus) are all fighting with each other in every game they play. Mephisto and Strike definitely lead the pack, but I would argue any team in this range will give the other teams a good battle. The nice thing is good competition pushes all these teams to be better.

I think the best thing about the summer season is that rivalries and back and forth games were the name of the season. For example, Roy and Firebird continued their season to season struggle with Roy coming our on top this year (as I predicted). As some teams move into the fall season and the University season starts up, all these teams will be looking to improve and make next season as good.

  1. Furious (picked 1st) - it was a finals that Furious jumped ahead on after taking advantage of errors and didn't stop rolling. Only a few would have bet against these guys.
  2. Goat (picked 2nd) - had a scare against Invictus, but made it to the finals with very few other challenges. The finals was what it was. Hopefully, this will leave the team hungry for more.
  3. Invictus (picked 3rd) - these guys were good, but not good enough to break into the top 2. They're still clearly in the top echelon.
  4. Mephisto (picked 4th) - not their best tournament of the year, but they did what they had to to get into the quarters.
  5. General Strike (picked 11) - sure these guys made it to 5th, but boy did they complain about me picking them so low (in banter that is completely for fun). I just called it as I saw it, and I didn't see much from them over the season.
  6. Blackfish (picked 7th) - A great tournament for these guys. They only lost by 1 in the quarters. Vancouver number 2 is showing well for their second season of existence. I expect a fall series run will show how they fit in the West.
  7. Mangina (picked 14th) - These guys could have been 7th (results aren't up yet). I picked them low on the basis of no info. I met one of these guys on the bus ride to the field and really enjoyed hearing about Ultimate in Saskatchewan and the challenges they face in getting to tournaments.
  8. Nads (picked 6th) - The number 2 team in Ontario after this tournament. I just wish they would play more during the regular season or see them in a fall UPA run.
  9. Phoenix (picked 5th) - Nads and Blackfish pushed these guys into the lower pool where they showed they're on the rebuild, but still strong enough to take the bracket. The lowest finish for Phoenix, but still a positive season with signs of a return to the top.
  10. Grand Trunk (picked 10th) - I thought we might be here unless we had a breakout tournament. It turns out our breakout was late on Saturday by beating some teams who had our number this year.
  11. Q (picked 12th) - Q finishes the tournament strong with a win over Magma. This hasn't been Q's best year, and I hear their veteran handler is retiring. Hopefully, number 7 stays on the team to help rebuild.
  12. Magma (picked 8th) - It looked like their breakout year would continue with a win over Mephisto in power pools, but point differential and a 1-2 record on Saturday drops them down. Still, if they don't lose too many players they'll be a team to reckon with next year.
  13. Seven (picked 19 or 20) - They changed their name and had a strong Volleyball receiver and a good ex-Nads handler. Their athleticism pushed them much higher than I ever expected.
  14. STR (picked 19 or 20) - Same situation. A little surprising. Great choice on the name change.
  15. Red Circus (picked 9th) - They started off firing on all cylinders and had a run against Furious. Unfortunately, they left the tank empty for Saturday and fell down the ladder. Still, I think this was one of their best seasons ever riding on the back of two great players.
  16. Too Bad (picked 13th) - The boys in blue stayed in the second bracket, but couldn't make a significant run to push higher in the seedings. No shock here.
  17. Roy (picked 17th) - After beating Firebird on Friday they came out wrong against Seven. On Saturday, they at least got their revenge against SWASS.
  18. Sherbrooke (picked 15th) - I thought these guys would finish higher, but it seems all the best in Sherbrooke played on Gecko (3rd place mixed).
  19. Firebird (picked 16th) - Unfortunately, the wheels fell off for Nationals. The Roy loss was the mental breaking point that couldn't be recovered from. I expect the bird will be back on track next year with another season of experience.
  20. SWASS (picked 18th) - They had a few ups, but mostly downs.
PJ

4 comments:

Jamie said...

hey peter

mangina actually beat nads in the final 7/8 game on saturday. we won 12-10 to finish the tourney.

love the blog. keep up the good work.

cheers
jamie bishop
mangina

Daniel Fassina said...

Peter,

You are very generous in your comments regarding Mephisto. It was our worst tournament of the year but I guess injuries will do that to you.

We had hoped to compete with the big boys but with our three most experienced players out of action due to injuries and a number of other injuries over the weekend we realized quite quickly that our focus was going to be on battling just to make quarters.

On the plus side we had to run with our newer, less experienced players and we still managed to grab fourth place.

The gap between semis and 10th place is definitely shrinking which only bodes well for the future of Canadian Ultimate. Now if only CUPA could figure out a consistent format for the tournament to make it this competitive every year...

Dan Fassina
Mephisto

RC said...

Hi Peter,

GT and RC have had some great battles this year and they were a lot of fun. As for your comment regarding us "riding the backs of 2 great players"....first I would be interested to hear who these 2 great players are and second I think you are a bit off the mark. Yes we do have some great individual players but the strength of our team this year was that our weakest players were not as weak as previous years and we played a good team game.....except when we blew a 5-1 lead to you guys on Sat at Nats!!!

Dave Lutwick
RC

Jeters said...

Fixed the Mangina ranking...

To Dan, things are looking good for Canadian Ultimate, but our University seen needs to be improved.

To Dave, Overall, RC is definitely better from top to bottom, but Ramsey's big hucks kept you in games that you might not have been in. Give him credit as an All star.

PJ