Monday, July 16, 2007

Bathurst Odds part V - Bording Time

No Borders was a good weekend in Ottawa with sprinkles of rain and a collection of teams from around the area. The ladies division was dominated by the Capitals with Storm coming in second after beating the Diggers in a tight semis.

In the Open division, we saw some of the key match ups I was hoping for.

  • Tombstone beats GLUM in a tightly fought game on the Saturday.
  • Firebird pulls out a universe point on Roy.
  • Mephisto takes the tournament championship with a 14-10 win over Phoenix.
How does that change the odds?

1. Furious George - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 2-3
No change

2. Goat
Bathurst Odds - 4-1
No change

3. Invictus - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 10-1
No change

4. Mephisto - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 10-1
Even with the tournament win Mephisto didn't strike me as dominant. They were missing Shaggy, but their core looked a little shaky in the wind. They, however, got the job done and with one tournament left (Log Jam) they'll be ramping up for Nationals. Eric was quite dominant in all the games I saw him play in.

5. Phoenix - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 25-1
Phoenix made the finals at Borders with a Universe quarters win over Nads and a 4 or 5 point semifinals game against Magma. They ran with Mephisto for a while relying on their veteran O-line that include a strong number 10 (who I sense might be the next star from Ottawa). Now that I've finally watched them play I have a tough time figuring out who they can beat out to make semis at Nationals. I think they match up well against Invictus and historically have had good Nationals.

6. Nads - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 35-1
Nads weren't strictly representative of who they would have at Nationals, but they've got players. I expect they'll have to fight their way into quarters, but if they stay healthy and in the right mind frame they have the talent to make quarters. a bunch of stars will need to align to make semis.

7. Blackfish - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 40-1
Didn't play this weekend, but with the loss of Derek Baxter I think this team will be hard pressed to finish 7th. No results as of late means they're probably practicing hard and getting some time against Furious.

8. Magma - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 45-1
The big mover this weekend. They beat GT in pool play 7-5 in a shortened game, Maddington Bears (a solid Queen's Alumni team) in the quarters, and they loss to Phoenix by only a few in the semis. When you look at them nobody pops out as a superstar, but they play a good team game with lots of breaks and constant pressure. I'm not convinced they'll make quarters, but this season they've been playing well.

9. Red Circus - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 50-1
Didn't make the top 8 and didn't come 9th. I didn't see these guys play anybody, and I don't know who came from their roster. They're out of the top 8 to make room for Magma.

11. Grand Trunk - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 50-1
A loss to Magma on day one and a loss in the quarters to the eventual winners on day two, but Borders was the best tournament yet for GT this season. Magma gets to move up the ladder, but I don't expect them to beat GT again. I wouldn't rule out a win against Mephisto either.

10. Q - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 60-1
Not in the top 8 and another loss to GLUM. Q does have their veteran handler back and he told me he had just come back from France. I'm guessing once he gets back into disc shape this team will have the personnel to make a move in the standings and maybe surprise one of the lower teams for an appearance in Quarters.

12. Too Bad - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 75-1
Too Bad picked up a number of coed players for this weekend. I can't talk about chemistry or the validity of any of their wins so no change.

13. Winnipeg General Strike - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 90-1
No change

14. Mangina - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 100-1
No change

15. Sherbrooke Open - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 110-1
No change

16. Firebird - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 130-1
Firebird gets a win against Roy to stay in the top 16. I think they can get higher than this at Nationals, but I'll leave them here for now since 13,14,15 are wildcards. The GT vs. Bird comment made on my last odds post should be laid to some rest after GT wins 15-5 in pool play. That won't be the score next time, but they've still got a gap to close on GT.

17. Roy - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 150-1
Roy keeps on coming. They had a fabulous game against Mephisto in pool play and a tough loss to Firebird. The next tournament in Detroit will give these guys even more time to click and prepare to make a move at Nationals.

Bathurst Odds - 250-1
No change

19. Hootenanni Pussywillows
Bathurst Odds - 1000-1

20. BID - RRI
Bathurst Odds - 1001-1



moses said...

Blackfish lost 15-6 to Furious this weekend at provincials.

artie said...

Love your blog, but would love it even more if you handicapped the Masters division for Nats :)

Jeters said...

I've fortunately played or seen almost every team in Open. Meanwhile in Masters I've only seen Tombstone, Glum, Mao, Fossil, and Vancouver Masters for about 2 minutes. I don't think I could comment as successfully.


Sport Management Steven said...

I actually would not change my assertion regarding Firebird. I think the first half of the game between GT and FB was very close, in terms of score and play. FB's play against zone will be much better come nationals.

Roy had some surprising talent on hand at NB. They are much improved since the start of the year, and definitely from last year.

Both Toronto teams were extremely well spirited and played clean games. Very impressive, and a great sign for nats.

Nat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Nat said...

So you still don't think Roy-Firebird would be a good game? :D.

Sport Management Steven said...

Let me clarify

-I think FB/ROY was and will be a great game
-I think Roy is much improved skill/spirit wise
-I think that FB (like Roy) should give legitimate challenges to GT this year.